New Feature: Release of the Cost Recovery and Revenue Estimator Tool. Read more.
New Feature: Release of the CoRRE Tool.
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Choose a Country to Calculate Desired Prevalence
Ukraine

I Would Like to Reduce the Baseline Smoking Prevalence by % Point Interpretation:
The estimates of economic gain from reduction in smoking are not available for the countries that have baseline smoking prevalence at 5% or below. In this model, we have set the lower limit of smoking prevalence at 5% allowing for non-commercial use of tobacco in recognition of the fact that it is largely the commercialization of tobacco products that is responsible for the devastating health and economic effect on human society in epidemic proportion. The intended policy impact is to reduce commercial tobacco use to zero and exhaust the remaining potential for economic gain therefrom.

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Select the desired reduction in smoking prevalence by percentage point (Note: This is absolute reduction). Green elements will be updated below depending on the selected percentage point change in smoking prevalence.

Baseline smoking prevalence

20.7%

Desired smoking prevalence Interpretation:
The percentage is not available when the desired smoking prevalence is below zero.

19.7%

Smoking-Attributable National Economic Cost (Million) Interpretation:
The national economic cost is cumulative over 15 years.

17,235.27

Expected National Economic Cost Recovery from Desired Smoking Reduction (Million) Interpretation:
The cost recovery is realizable in 5 years from the time of intervention.

428.66

Cigarette Price Per Pack

Baseline

1.94

Recommended

2.41

Total Tax Per Pack of Cigarettes Interpretation:
These cigarette tax and price per pack are recommended to attain the desired smoking prevalence.

Baseline

1.37

Recommended

1.84

Expected Cigarette Tax Revenue Gain (Million) Interpretation:
Raising cigarette tax and price per pack to the recommended levels is expected to increase annual cigarette tax revenue by this amount.

453.29

N/A

Complete data needed for estimation are not available.

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Estimate is not available because the baseline cigarette smoking prevalence is less than 5% comparable to a smoke-free state; economic gain from further reduction in smoking may be negligible. For countries with baseline smoking prevalence of less than 10%, only estimates resulting from 1% point reduction are available. Reduction greater than 1% point in the short run may not be practicable in countries with very low baseline smoking prevalence.

Cost-of-Illness Attributable to Smoking Interpretation:
The smoking-attributable cost-of-illness estimates are reported as annual estimates.

$ 3,416,790,000
$ 461,580,000
$ 3,878,370,000
$ 872,280,000
$4,750,650,000
Smoking-Attributable Indirect Cost:
Productivity Loss (Million) + 3,878
Smoking-Attributable Indirect Cost:
Productivity Loss Due To Mortality (Million) 3,417
Smoking-Attributable Indirect Cost:
Productivity Loss Due To Morbidity (Million) 462
Smoking-Attributable Direct Cost:
Health Expenditure (Million) + 872
Annual Smoking-Attributable Cost-of-Illness (Million) 4,751

Access and Share

Ukraine Prevalence Report: Select the checkboxes below to choose which reports you want to download. Once selected, click the button below to generate your Cost Recovery and Revenue Estimator report PDF.

Data Sets: Access the data sets (all countries) used for estimating the impact of a reduction in tobacco prevalence percentage (-1 to -5%).

Download All Data Sets

Share Results: Spread the word about the economic benefits of reducing tobacco prevalence and share your findings.

Technical Note: Read a technical guide on the calculation behind these estimates, including data sources used, parameter/variable definitions and references.

Download Technical Note

FAQs

CoRRE is designed for the public health community, advocates, and policymakers to assess the economic cost of smoking that can be recovered through reduction in smoking in their countries. In addition, the estimator will help users assess expected revenue gain from raising cigarette tax that can potentially bring forth the decrease in smoking. It provides estimates of the economic gains in local currency units, U.S. dollars (USD) and International Purchasing Power Parity dollars (Int$PPP). Additionally, the tool suggests the recommended cigarette price and tax per pack to achieve the desired reduction in smoking prevalence. The estimator uses the national economic cost measure which is more comprehensive and an improved method of assessing costs and gains compared to the cost-of-illness approach.

Currency unit: The user can change the currency unit as desired.

Dynamic elements: All green cells will be updated depending on the selected percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence.

Interpretations: Notes for clear interpretation are provided with each estimate. Please hover over the ⓘ icon to see the interpretations.

This estimator aims to provide quantifiable results to understand the economic gains due to smoking reduction and desired cigarette tax increases to induce that reduction.

The estimates of economic cost recovery from reductions in smoking are not available for the countries that have baseline smoking prevalence at 5% or below because the model sets a lower limit of 5% to account for non-commercial use of tobacco. The intended policy impact is to reduce commercial tobacco use to zero and exhaust the remaining potential for economic gain therefrom.

Since tobacco use cannot be eliminated altogether and since many tobacco-related diseases take years to develop, the economic gains are relatively small in the first few years. The estimates provided in this tool correspond to these short-run gains. The cumulative gain over the longer term is expected to be much larger.

Moreover, the full value of lives lost and the suffering of the individuals and their families from tobacco-related diseases and deaths are intangible and are not quantifiable in monetary terms. The true benefit to society from smoking reduction is, therefore, much larger than these measured gains.

The data required for these estimations are not completely available for all countries. Therefore, there are no estimates for countries with missing values for the variables used in the estimation.

Attribution: The Cost Recovery and Revenue Estimator tool is a collaboration of the American Cancer Society (ACS), Vital Strategies and Economics for Health (E4H) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). With research and funding support from E4H-JHU, the tool is adapted from a model developed by ACS researchers in collaboration with Professor AKM Ghulam Hussain at the University of Dhaka to quantify the economic impact of smoking reduction as part of the evaluation of the potential impact of cancer prevention through tobacco control on US populations. The principal investigator for this project is Nigar Nargis at ACS and the co-investigators are Saw Min Thu Oo and Jeffrey Drope at JHU. The website and data visualization have been developed and supported by Vital Strategies, led by Johnny Hsu and David Shin.

Citation: Nargis N, Oo SMT, Drope J. 2025. Cost Recovery and Revenue Estimator. In Drope J, Hamill S, editors, Tobacco Atlas. New York: Vital Strategies and Johns Hopkins University. Available at: Tobacco Atlas